{
  "report_contract_version": "monthly-observatory-brief/v2",
  "month": "2026-07",
  "title": "Monthly Observatory Brief - July 2026",
  "period_label": "July 2026",
  "status": "published",
  "publication": {
    "status": "published",
    "prepared_at": "2026-08-13",
    "published_at": "2026-08-13",
    "updated_at": "2026-08-22",
    "update_note": "auDA July 2026 registry context added after initial publication."
  },
  "monthly_readout": [
    "The observatory stored 1,001 event rows across 47 of the 100 panel domains during July.",
    "Of those rows, 984 are retained as legacy DNS-sensitive activity; 17 registration-status movement rows across 12 domains form the bounded supported-movement subset.",
    "Recorded activity appeared through all eight published cohort lenses, while supported movement appeared through seven; cohorts are overlapping analytical lenses, not rankings.",
    "At month end, positive public evidence included DMARC visible for 97 panel domains, SPF visible for 96 and MX visible for 94; July does not infer negative complements from legacy DNS evidence."
  ],
  "observed_activity": {
    "status": "qualified",
    "recorded_event_rows": 1001,
    "affected_domains": 47,
    "affected_domains_status": "published",
    "supported_movement_rows": 17,
    "supported_movement_domains": 12,
    "legacy_dns_sensitive_event_rows": 984,
    "note": "Recorded event rows describe the preserved observatory record across 47 panel domains. They are not all equivalent confirmed changes; the 17 reviewed registration-status rows across 12 domains are reported separately as bounded supported movement."
  },
  "cohort_context": {
    "status": "qualified",
    "membership_model": "canonical_published_cohorts",
    "membership_effective_from": "2026-07-01",
    "overlap_note": "A domain may appear in more than one analytical cohort. Cohort membership totals therefore do not sum to the fixed panel size.",
    "rows": [
      {"id": "government", "title": "Australian government domains", "denominator": 14, "overlapping_membership": false, "recorded_event_rows": 69, "domains_with_recorded_activity": 3, "supported_movement_rows": 1, "domains_with_supported_movement": 1},
      {"id": "nfp", "title": "Australian not-for-profit domains", "denominator": 16, "overlapping_membership": false, "recorded_event_rows": 64, "domains_with_recorded_activity": 8, "supported_movement_rows": 5, "domains_with_supported_movement": 4},
      {"id": "education", "title": "Australian higher education domains", "denominator": 10, "overlapping_membership": false, "recorded_event_rows": 35, "domains_with_recorded_activity": 5, "supported_movement_rows": 2, "domains_with_supported_movement": 1},
      {"id": "media", "title": "Australian media domains", "denominator": 8, "overlapping_membership": false, "recorded_event_rows": 190, "domains_with_recorded_activity": 4, "supported_movement_rows": 2, "domains_with_supported_movement": 1},
      {"id": "commercial", "title": "Retail and marketplace domains", "denominator": 14, "overlapping_membership": false, "recorded_event_rows": 324, "domains_with_recorded_activity": 10, "supported_movement_rows": 3, "domains_with_supported_movement": 2},
      {"id": "financial-services", "title": "Financial services domains", "denominator": 8, "overlapping_membership": false, "recorded_event_rows": 85, "domains_with_recorded_activity": 4, "supported_movement_rows": 1, "domains_with_supported_movement": 1},
      {"id": "public-interest", "title": "Public-interest domains", "denominator": 21, "overlapping_membership": true, "recorded_event_rows": 149, "domains_with_recorded_activity": 8, "supported_movement_rows": 4, "domains_with_supported_movement": 3},
      {"id": "software-platforms", "title": "Australian software platforms", "denominator": 5, "overlapping_membership": false, "recorded_event_rows": 35, "domains_with_recorded_activity": 2, "supported_movement_rows": 0, "domains_with_supported_movement": 0}
    ],
    "note": "Cohort context uses the published analytical-lens model applicable from July. Recorded event rows are descriptive counts, not a ranking of cohorts; most July event rows inherit legacy DNS-evidence ambiguity."
  },
  "month_end_posture": {
    "status": "qualified",
    "as_of": "2026-08-01T00:00:00+10:00",
    "panel_denominator": 100,
    "comparison_status": "withheld",
    "metrics": [
      {"id": "dnssec_visible", "label": "DNSSEC visible", "count": 15},
      {"id": "secure_delegation_asserted", "label": "Secure delegation asserted", "count": 13},
      {"id": "dnskey_observed", "label": "DNSKEY observed", "count": 8},
      {"id": "mx_visible", "label": "MX visible", "count": 94},
      {"id": "spf_visible", "label": "SPF visible", "count": 96},
      {"id": "dmarc_visible", "label": "DMARC visible", "count": 97},
      {"id": "dns_provider_classified", "label": "DNS provider classified", "count": 100},
      {"id": "email_provider_classified", "label": "Email provider classified", "count": 94},
      {"id": "registrar_visible", "label": "Registrar visible", "count": 99}
    ],
    "note": "Counts are positive observations at month end. Negative complements and DNS-derived change values are not inferred for July."
  },
  "supported_movement": {
    "status": "qualified",
    "items": [
      {
        "id": "rdap_status_changed",
        "label": "Registration status movement",
        "event_rows": 17,
        "affected_domains": 12,
        "evidence_status": "bounded"
      }
    ],
    "note": "The remaining 984 stored July event rows are DNS-outcome-sensitive legacy evidence and are retained as recorded activity rather than promoted into confirmed public movement claims."
  },
  "mail_trust": {
    "status": "unavailable",
    "reason": "not_available_for_reporting_period",
    "note": "Mail Posture v1 was introduced after the July reporting window. It becomes a core monthly surface from the first full structured reporting month."
  },
  "auda_context": {
    "status": "current",
    "target_month": "2026-07",
    "registry_month": "2026-07",
    "source": "auDA Registry Monthly Statistics",
    "source_url": "https://files.auda.org.au/documents/Registry-Monthly-Stats-July-2026.pdf",
    "total_names_under_management": 4400684,
    "total_new_domains": 66911,
    "panel_per_million": 22.7,
    "note": "July 2026 auDA Registry Monthly Statistics are included as external namespace context."
  },
  "observation_coverage": {
    "status": "published",
    "panel_denominator": 100,
    "collector_runs": 186,
    "successful_runs": 186,
    "partial_runs": 0,
    "failed_runs": 0,
    "domain_observations_attempted": 3100,
    "domain_observations_succeeded": 3100,
    "domain_observations_failed": 0,
    "snapshot_rows_written": 3100,
    "rdap_fallback_count": 0,
    "dns_error_count": 0,
    "rdap_error_count": 30
  },
  "evidence_quality": {
    "status": "qualified",
    "dns_outcome_model": "legacy_pre_dns_observation_v1",
    "comparison_status": "limited",
    "metrics": [
      {"id": "structured_dns_snapshots", "label": "Structured DNS snapshots", "value": 0},
      {"id": "legacy_dns_snapshots", "label": "Legacy DNS snapshots", "value": 3100},
      {"id": "observed_domains", "label": "Observed domains", "value": 100},
      {"id": "observatory_event_rows", "label": "Stored observatory event rows", "value": 1001},
      {"id": "legacy_dns_sensitive_event_rows", "label": "Legacy DNS-sensitive rows", "value": 984},
      {"id": "rdap_status_event_rows", "label": "Registration status rows reviewed", "value": 17}
    ],
    "structured_dns_snapshot_rows": 0,
    "legacy_dns_snapshot_rows": 3100,
    "observed_domains": 100,
    "observatory_event_rows": 1001,
    "legacy_dns_sensitive_event_rows": 984,
    "rdap_status_event_rows": 17,
    "note": "Empty DNS arrays and false compatibility booleans cannot reliably distinguish observed absence from an indeterminate lookup in July."
  },
  "provider_context": {
    "status": "qualified",
    "note": "Provider classification coverage is shown in month-end posture; detailed provider distributions are omitted for July."
  },
  "limitations": [
    "The fixed .auDO panel is an observation panel, not a representative sample of the whole .au namespace.",
    "Recorded event rows are descriptive observatory records and are not all equivalent confirmed posture changes.",
    "Observed cohorts are curated analytical lenses and may overlap; they are not complete sector-wide coverage or rankings.",
    "July predates persisted structured DNS query outcomes, so positive observations may be reported without inferring negative complements.",
    "Mail Posture v1 is not retroactively applied to July.",
    "auDA July 2026 registry context was added after initial publication; registry statistics are external namespace context only.",
    "The brief is a descriptive observation, not a score, benchmark, assessment or whole-namespace finding."
  ]
}